A live causal-inference engine, working beside you
The trading partner that shows its work.
The market triggers your gut. KELLY gives the deliberate side of your brain something real to work with: a live causal model that reasons out loud, tells you honestly when the evidence is too thin to act, and lets you challenge every call. You stay the decision maker.
Free forever tier. Causalea is an educational tool, not financial advice.
When the evidence lines up, KELLY says so and shows you exactly why.
When the signals conflict, it holds. Patience is treated as a position, not a failure.
When it does not know, it says it does not know. It never invents confidence to look smart.
Most tools only ever tell you to buy. KELLY treats wait and I do not know as first-class answers, because pretending to be certain is how accounts get wrecked.
Built to be honest, not impressive
Everything KELLY shows you is real and checkable. There are no demo numbers and no hidden steps.
It shows its full reasoning
Open the Glass Lab and watch the live causal graph, the analytical perspectives behind each call, and the exact signals that moved its conviction this tick.
It is honest about uncertainty
KELLY is built to say wait, and to say it does not know. No fabricated probabilities, no false precision dressed up as insight.
Its record is tamper-evident
Every decision is hashed and logged. Recompute the hashes yourself, byte for byte - one click in the dashboard, a public verification endpoint, or a standalone auditor script - and confirm no call was edited after the fact.
You can challenge every call
Override KELLY and it scores both of you against what actually happened. Over time you learn where your judgment adds edge, and where it quietly costs you.
Scored in the open
KELLY's calls are tracked for directional accuracy and statistical significance. No edge is claimed until there is enough resolved history to mean something, and when the sample is still small, the page says so plainly.
What you get on the free tier
- Causal Graph. A live map of how market signals cause and reinforce each other, updated every tick.
- Decisions. ACT, WAIT, or PARTIAL with full reasoning, a 24-hour projection, and a catastrophic-loss filter on every tick.
- Perspectives. Five analytical lenses (Macro, Technical, Sentiment, Fundamental, Systematic) showing where conviction comes from.
- P&L Chart. The engine's running paper profit and loss, so you can see whether its conviction is backed by performance.
- Forecast Journal. Log your own predictions, resolve them against real outcomes, and get scored honestly on your calibration.
Pricing
Start free. Upgrade only when you want the full universe and deeper tools.
Two symbols (AAPL, BTC), the causal graph, decisions, perspectives, and the P&L chart. Free forever.
All supported equity and crypto symbols, noise score, antifragile and black-swan alerts, alert rules, and 365-day memory.
Unlimited symbols, live WebSocket feed, backtesting, AI Council debates, via negativa, barbell, deep causal maps, bias report, and memory stamps.
Everything in Pro plus six-round deep debate, reference-class calibration, the hypothesis log, and full engine control.
Team seats, custom model training, and institutional-grade audit trails.
Stop trading on gut alone.
Bring a partner that reasons out loud, admits what it does not know, and keeps a record you can verify.